A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
